{"id":1266,"date":"2024-01-01T18:23:23","date_gmt":"2024-01-01T10:23:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cabit.top\/?p=1266"},"modified":"2024-01-01T18:23:24","modified_gmt":"2024-01-01T10:23:24","slug":"%e8%b4%9d%e5%8f%b6%e6%96%af%e7%bd%91%e7%bb%9c%e7%ae%80%e4%bb%8b","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cabit.top\/?p=1266","title":{"rendered":"\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u7f51\u7edc\u7b80\u4ecb"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h1 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u7f51\u7edc\u7b80\u4ecb<\/h1>\n\n\n\n<p><em>\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u7f51\u7edc<\/em>&nbsp;\uff08BN\uff09 \u7528\u4e8e\u4ee5\u67d0\u79cd\u65b9\u5f0f\u5bf9\u5305\u542b\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u7684\u57df\u8fdb\u884c\u5efa\u6a21\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u7531\u4e8e\u5bf9\u57df\u7684\u7406\u89e3\u4e0d\u5b8c\u5168\uff0c\u5728\u6267\u884c\u7ed9\u5b9a\u4efb\u52a1\u65f6\u5bf9\u57df\u72b6\u6001\u7684\u4e0d\u5b8c\u5168\u4e86\u89e3\uff0c\u63a7\u5236\u57df\u884c\u4e3a\u7684\u673a\u5236\u7684\u968f\u673a\u6027\uff0c\u6216\u8fd9\u4e9b\u56e0\u7d20\u7684\u7ec4\u5408\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u7f51\u7edc\u4e5f\u79f0\u4e3a\u4fe1\u5ff5\u7f51\u7edc\u548c<em>\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u4fe1\u5ff5\u7f51\u7edc<\/em>\u3002\u4ee5\u524d\uff0c<em>\u672f\u8bed\u56e0\u679c\u6982\u7387\u7f51\u7edc<\/em>\u4e5f\u88ab\u4f7f\u7528\u8fc7\u3002BN \u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u8282\u70b9\u7f51\u7edc\uff0c\u901a\u8fc7\u6709\u5411\u94fe\u63a5\u8fde\u63a5\uff0c\u6bcf\u4e2a\u8282\u70b9\u90fd\u9644\u52a0\u4e00\u4e2a\u6982\u7387\u51fd\u6570\u3002BN \u7684\u7f51\u7edc\uff08\u6216\u56fe\uff09\u662f<em>\u6709\u5411\u65e0\u73af\u56fe<\/em>&nbsp;\uff08DAG\uff09\uff0c\u5373\u6ca1\u6709\u5728\u540c\u4e00\u8282\u70b9\u5f00\u59cb\u548c\u7ed3\u675f\u7684\u6709\u5411\u8def\u5f84\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u8282\u70b9\u8868\u793a\u5177\u6709\u6709\u9650\u72b6\u6001\u6570\u7684\u79bb\u6563\u968f\u673a\u53d8\u91cf\u6216\u8fde\u7eed\uff08\u9ad8\u65af\u5206\u5e03\uff09\u968f\u673a\u53d8\u91cf\u3002\u5728\u672c\u6587\u6863\u4e2d\uff0c\u672f\u8bed\u201c\u53d8\u91cf\u201d\u548c\u201c\u8282\u70b9\u201d\u53ef\u4ee5\u4e92\u6362\u4f7f\u7528\u3002\u8282\u70b9\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u94fe\u63a5\u8868\u793a\u8282\u70b9\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\uff08\u56e0\u679c\uff09\u5173\u7cfb\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5982\u679c\u4e00\u4e2a\u8282\u70b9\u6ca1\u6709\u4efb\u4f55\u7236\u8282\u70b9\uff08\u5373\uff0c\u6ca1\u6709\u6307\u5411\u5b83\u7684\u94fe\u63a5\uff09\uff0c\u5219\u8be5\u8282\u70b9\u5c06\u5305\u542b\u4e00\u4e2a<em>\u8fb9\u9645\u6982\u7387\u8868<\/em>\u3002\u5982\u679c\u8282\u70b9\u662f\u79bb\u6563\u7684\uff0c\u5219\u5b83\u5305\u542b\u5b83\u6240\u8868\u793a\u7684\u53d8\u91cf\u72b6\u6001\u7684\u6982\u7387\u5206\u5e03\u3002\u5982\u679c\u8282\u70b9\u662f\u8fde\u7eed\u7684\uff0c\u5219\u5b83\u5305\u542b\u5b83\u6240\u8868\u793a\u7684\u968f\u673a\u53d8\u91cf\u7684\u9ad8\u65af\u5bc6\u5ea6\u51fd\u6570\uff08\u901a\u8fc7\u5747\u503c\u548c\u65b9\u5dee\u53c2\u6570\u7ed9\u51fa\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5982\u679c\u8282\u70b9\u786e\u5b9e\u6709\u7236\u8282\u70b9\uff08\u5373\u6307\u5411\u5b83\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u6216\u591a\u4e2a\u94fe\u8def\uff09\uff0c\u5219\u8be5\u8282\u70b9\u5305\u542b<em>\u6761\u4ef6\u6982\u7387\u8868<\/em>&nbsp;\uff08CPT\uff09\u3002\u5982\u679c\u8282\u70b9\u662f\u79bb\u6563\u7684\uff0c\u5219\u8282\u70b9\u7684 CPT\uff08\u6216\u66f4\u4e00\u822c\u5730\u8bf4\uff0c\u6761\u4ef6\u6982\u7387\u51fd\u6570 \uff08CPF\uff09\uff09\u4e2d\u7684\u6bcf\u4e2a\u5355\u5143\u90fd\u5305\u542b\u8282\u70b9\u5904\u4e8e\u7279\u5b9a\u72b6\u6001\u7684<em>\u6761\u4ef6\u6982\u7387<\/em>\uff0c\u7ed9\u5b9a\u5176\u7236\u8282\u70b9\u72b6\u6001\u7684\u7279\u5b9a\u914d\u7f6e\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u79bb\u6563\u8282\u70b9\u7684 CPT \u4e2d\u7684\u5355\u5143\u6570\u7b49\u4e8e\u8282\u70b9\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u72b6\u6001\u6570\u4e0e\u7236\u8282\u70b9\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u72b6\u6001\u6570\u7684\u4e58\u79ef\u3002\u5982\u679c\u8282\u70b9\u662f\u8fde\u7eed\u7684\uff0c\u5219 CPT \u5305\u542b\u5176\u79bb\u6563\u7236\u9879\u72b6\u6001\u7684\u6bcf\u4e2a\u914d\u7f6e\u7684\u5747\u503c\u548c\u65b9\u5dee\u53c2\u6570\uff08\u5982\u679c\u6ca1\u6709\u79bb\u6563\u7236\u9879\uff0c\u5219\u5305\u542b\u4e00\u4e2a\uff09\u7684\u5747\u503c\u548c\u65b9\u5dee\u53c2\u6570\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u79bb\u6563\u7236\u9879\u72b6\u6001\u7684\u6bcf\u4e2a\u914d\u7f6e\u7684\u6bcf\u4e2a\u8fde\u7eed\u7236\u9879\u7684\u56de\u5f52\u7cfb\u6570\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u4e0b\u9762\u7684\u793a\u4f8b\u8bd5\u56fe\u4f7f\u6240\u6709\u8fd9\u4e9b\u66f4\u52a0\u5177\u4f53\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u82f9\u679c\u6811\u793a\u4f8b<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>\u6b64\u793a\u4f8b\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u57df\u662f\u5c5e\u4e8e Jack Fletcher\uff08\u6211\u4eec\u79f0\u4ed6\u4e3a Apple Jack\uff09\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u5c0f\u679c\u56ed\u3002\u6709\u4e00\u5929\uff0cApple Jack\u53d1\u73b0\u4ed6\u6700\u597d\u7684\u82f9\u679c\u6811\u6b63\u5728\u843d\u53f6\u3002\u73b0\u5728\uff0c\u4ed6\u60f3\u77e5\u9053\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u4f1a\u8fd9\u6837\u3002\u4ed6\u77e5\u9053\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u8fd9\u68f5\u6811\u662f\u5e72\u71e5\u7684\uff08\u7531\u5e72\u65f1\u5f15\u8d77\u7684\uff09\uff0c\u8fd9\u5e76\u4e0d\u795e\u79d8\u2014\u2014\u6811\u6728\u5728\u5e72\u65f1\u671f\u95f4\u843d\u53f6\u662f\u5f88\u5e38\u89c1\u7684\u3002\u53e6\u4e00\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u53f6\u5b50\u7684\u8131\u843d\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u75be\u75c5\u7684\u8ff9\u8c61\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u8fd9\u79cd\u60c5\u51b5\u53ef\u4ee5\u7531\u56fe1\u4e2d\u7684BN\u5efa\u6a21\u3002BN \u7531\u4e09\u4e2a\u8282\u70b9\u7ec4\u6210\uff1aSick\uff08\u751f\u75c5\uff09\u3001Dry\uff08\u5e72\u71e5\uff09\u548cLost\uff08\u843d\u53f6\uff09\uff0c\u5b83\u4eec\u90fd\u53ef\u4ee5\u5904\u4e8e\u4e24\u79cd\u72b6\u6001\u4e4b\u4e00\uff1a\u751f\u75c5\u53ef\u4ee5\u662f\u201c\u751f\u75c5\u201d\u6216\u201c\u4e0d\u751f\u75c5\u201d\u2014\u2014\u5e72\u71e5\u53ef\u4ee5\u662f\u201c\u5e72\u71e5\u201d\u6216\u201c\u4e0d\u5e72\u71e5\u201d\u2014\u2014\u5931\u53bb\u53ef\u4ee5\u662f\u201c\u662f\u201d\u6216\u201c\u5426\u201d\u3002\u8282\u70b9 Sick \u544a\u8bc9\u6211\u4eec\uff0c\u82f9\u679c\u6811\u5904\u4e8e\u201c\u751f\u75c5\u201d\u72b6\u6001\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u751f\u75c5\u4e86\u3002\u5426\u5219\uff0c\u5b83\u5c06\u5904\u4e8e\u201c\u4e0d\u201d\u72b6\u6001\u3002\u8282\u70b9 Dry \u548c Lost \u5206\u522b\u4ee5\u76f8\u540c\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\u544a\u8bc9\u6211\u4eec\u6811\u662f\u5426\u5e72\u71e5\u4ee5\u53ca\u6811\u662f\u5426\u6b63\u5728\u843d\u53f6\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"611\" height=\"366\" src=\"https:\/\/cabit.top\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/image.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-1267\" srcset=\"https:\/\/cabit.top\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/image.png 611w, https:\/\/cabit.top\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/image-300x180.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 611px) 100vw, 611px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>\u56fe 1\uff1aBN \u8868\u793a Apple Jack \u95ee\u9898\u7684\u57df\u3002<strong><a href=\"file:\/\/\/D:\/Program%20Files\/Hugin%20Expert\/Hugin%20Lite%209.3%20(x64)\/Htmlhelp\/pages\/Tutorials\/BayesianNetwork\/IntroductionToBayesianNetworks.html#id1\"><\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u56fe 1 \u4e2d\u7684 BN \u6a21\u62df\u4e86\u4ece Sick \u5230 Lost \u4ee5\u53ca\u4ece Dry \u5230 Lost \u7684<em>\u56e0\u679c\u4f9d\u8d56<\/em>\u5173\u7cfb\u3002\u8fd9\u7531\u4e24\u4e2a\u94fe\u63a5\u8868\u793a\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5f53\u4e00\u4e2a\u8282\u70b9 A \u4e0e\u53e6\u4e00\u4e2a\u8282\u70b9 B \u4e4b\u95f4\u5b58\u5728\u56e0\u679c\u4f9d\u8d56\u5173\u7cfb\u65f6\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u9884\u8ba1\u5f53 A \u5904\u4e8e\u67d0\u79cd\u72b6\u6001\u65f6\uff0c\u8fd9\u4f1a\u5bf9 B \u7684\u72b6\u6001\u4ea7\u751f\u5f71\u54cd\u3002\u5728\u5bf9BN\u4e2d\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u4f9d\u8d56\u8fdb\u884c\u5efa\u6a21\u65f6\uff0c\u5e94\u8be5\u5c0f\u5fc3\u3002\u6709\u65f6\uff0c\u94fe\u63a5\u5e94\u8be5\u6307\u5411\u54ea\u4e2a\u65b9\u5411\u5e76\u4e0d\u662f\u5f88\u660e\u663e\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u5728\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u4f8b\u5b50\u4e2d\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u8bf4\u4ece\u751f\u75c5\u5230\u635f\u5931\u4e4b\u95f4\u5b58\u5728\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u5f53\u4e00\u68f5\u6811\u751f\u75c5\u65f6\uff0c\u8fd9\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u5bfc\u81f4\u6811\u5931\u53bb\u53f6\u5b50\u3002\u4f46\u662f\uff0c\u96be\u9053\u4e0d\u80fd\u8bf4\uff0c\u5f53\u6811\u5931\u53bb\u53f6\u5b50\u65f6\uff0c\u5b83\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u751f\u75c5\uff0c\u7136\u540e\u5c06\u94fe\u63a5\u8f6c\u5411\u53e6\u4e00\u4e2a\u65b9\u5411\u5417\uff1f\u4e0d\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u4e0d\u80fd\uff01\u662f\u75be\u75c5\u5bfc\u81f4\u4e86\u843d\u53f6\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u843d\u53f6\u5bfc\u81f4\u4e86\u75be\u75c5\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5728\u56fe 1 \u4e2d\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5f97\u5230\u4e86 BN \u7684\u56fe\u5f62\u8868\u793a\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u8fd9\u53ea\u662f\u6211\u4eec\u6240\u8bf4\u7684\u56fd\u9635<em>\u7684\u5b9a\u6027\u4ee3\u8868<\/em>\u3002\u5728\u6211\u4eec\u79f0\u5b83\u4e3a BN \u4e4b\u524d\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u9700\u8981\u6307\u5b9a<em>\u5b9a\u91cf\u8868\u793a<\/em>\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>BN \u7684\u5b9a\u91cf\u8868\u793a\u662f\u8282\u70b9\u7684 CPT \u96c6\u5408\u3002\u8868 1\u30012 \u548c 3 \u663e\u793a\u4e86\u56fe 1 BN \u4e2d\u4e09\u4e2a\u8282\u70b9\u7684 CPT\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"302\" height=\"63\" src=\"https:\/\/cabit.top\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/image-1.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-1268\" srcset=\"https:\/\/cabit.top\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/image-1.png 302w, https:\/\/cabit.top\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/image-1-300x63.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 302px) 100vw, 302px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>\u88681\uff1aP(Sick)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"314\" height=\"70\" src=\"https:\/\/cabit.top\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/image-2.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-1269\" srcset=\"https:\/\/cabit.top\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/image-2.png 314w, https:\/\/cabit.top\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/image-2-300x67.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 314px) 100vw, 314px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>\u88682\uff1aP(Dry)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"825\" height=\"125\" src=\"https:\/\/cabit.top\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/image-3.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-1270\" srcset=\"https:\/\/cabit.top\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/image-3.png 825w, https:\/\/cabit.top\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/image-3-300x45.png 300w, https:\/\/cabit.top\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/image-3-768x116.png 768w, https:\/\/cabit.top\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/image-3-670x102.png 670w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 825px) 100vw, 825px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>\u88683\uff1aP(Loses |Sick, Dry)<strong><a href=\"file:\/\/\/D:\/Program%20Files\/Hugin%20Expert\/Hugin%20Lite%209.3%20(x64)\/Htmlhelp\/pages\/Tutorials\/BayesianNetwork\/IntroductionToBayesianNetworks.html#id4\"><\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u8bf7\u6ce8\u610f\uff0c\u6240\u6709\u4e09\u4e2a\u8868\u90fd\u663e\u793a\u4e86\u8282\u70b9\u5904\u4e8e\u7279\u5b9a\u72b6\u6001\u7684\u6982\u7387\uff0c\u5177\u4f53\u53d6\u51b3\u4e8e\u5176\u7236\u8282\u70b9\u7684\u72b6\u6001\uff0c\u4f46\u7531\u4e8e Sick \u548c Dry \u6ca1\u6709\u4efb\u4f55\u7236\u8282\u70b9\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u8868 1 \u548c\u8868 2 \u4e2d\u7684\u5206\u5e03\u4e0d\u4ee5\u4efb\u4f55\u5185\u5bb9\u4e3a\u6761\u4ef6\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5728\u7ed9\u5b9a\u5b9e\u4f8b\uff08\u4f8b\u5982\u4e0a\u8ff0\u5b9e\u4f8b\uff09\u4e2d\u5173\u6ce8\u53d8\u91cf\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\u7684 BN \u6709\u65f6\u79f0\u4e3a<em>\u9759\u6001\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u7f51\u7edc<\/em>&nbsp;\uff08SBN\uff09\u3002SBN\u53ea\u5173\u6ce8\u5f53\u524d\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\uff0c\u5e76\u4e0d\u660e\u786e\u5730\u5bf9\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u8fdb\u884c\u5efa\u6a21\uff0c\u5373\u5ffd\u7565\u8fc7\u53bb\u548c\u4e5f\u4e0d\u9884\u6d4b\u672a\u6765\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u5728\u56fe 2 \u4e2d\uff0c\u6709\u4e24\u79cd\u75be\u75c5\uff08D1 \u548c D2\uff09\u53ef\u5f15\u8d77\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u75c7\u72b6\uff08S1 \u548c S2\uff09\u3002\u4f7f\u7528\u624b\u5934\u7684\u75c7\u72b6\u4fe1\u606f\u53ef\u4ee5\u9884\u6d4b\u6bcf\u79cd\u75be\u75c5\u7684\u6982\u7387\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"530\" height=\"350\" src=\"https:\/\/cabit.top\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/image-4.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-1271\" srcset=\"https:\/\/cabit.top\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/image-4.png 530w, https:\/\/cabit.top\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/image-4-300x198.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 530px) 100vw, 530px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>\u56fe 2\uff1a\u9759\u6001\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u7f51\u7edc \uff08SBN\uff09 \u793a\u4f8b\u3002<strong><a href=\"file:\/\/\/D:\/Program%20Files\/Hugin%20Expert\/Hugin%20Lite%209.3%20(x64)\/Htmlhelp\/pages\/Tutorials\/BayesianNetwork\/IntroductionToBayesianNetworks.html#id5\"><\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5728\u8bb8\u591a\u95ee\u9898\u9886\u57df\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u4e0a\u9762\u8003\u8651\u7684\u533b\u7597\u60c5\u51b5\uff0c\u5728\u4e0d\u4f7f\u7528\u65f6\u95f4\u7ef4\u5ea6\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\u8868\u793a\u6570\u636e\u548c\u63a8\u7406\u51e0\u4e4e\u662f\u4e0d\u53ef\u60f3\u8c61\u7684\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u4e8b\u7269\u4f1a\u968f\u7740\u65f6\u95f4\u7684\u63a8\u79fb\u800c\u6f14\u53d8\u3002\u5982\u56fe 2 \u6240\u793a\u7684 SBN \u4e0d\u80fd\u7528\u4e8e\u6b64\u7c7b\u7cfb\u7edf\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u5fc5\u987b\u6269\u5c55\u7f51\u7edc\u4ee5\u5305\u542b\u65f6\u95f4\u4fe1\u606f\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u7f51\u7edc\u88ab\u79f0\u4e3a<em>\u52a8\u6001\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u7f51\u7edc<\/em>\uff08DBN\uff09\u3002\u5c06 SBN \u6269\u5c55\u5230 DBN \u7684\u6700\u7b80\u5355\u65b9\u6cd5\u662f\u5305\u542b SBN \u7684\u591a\u4e2a\u5b9e\u4f8b\uff08\u65f6\u95f4\u7247\uff09\u5e76\u5c06\u5b83\u4eec\u94fe\u63a5\u5728\u4e00\u8d77\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u56fe 3 \u4e2d\u7684\u7f51\u7edc\u662f\u901a\u8fc7\u94fe\u63a5\u56fe 2 \u4e2d\u7684\u591a\u4e2a\u7f51\u7edc\u5b9e\u4f8b\u83b7\u5f97\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"983\" height=\"475\" src=\"https:\/\/cabit.top\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/image-5.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-1272\" srcset=\"https:\/\/cabit.top\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/image-5.png 983w, https:\/\/cabit.top\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/image-5-300x145.png 300w, https:\/\/cabit.top\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/image-5-768x371.png 768w, https:\/\/cabit.top\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/image-5-670x324.png 670w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 983px) 100vw, 983px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>\u56fe 3\uff1a\u52a8\u6001\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u7f51\u7edc \uff08DBN\uff09 \u793a\u4f8b\u3002<strong><a href=\"file:\/\/\/D:\/Program%20Files\/Hugin%20Expert\/Hugin%20Lite%209.3%20(x64)\/Htmlhelp\/pages\/Tutorials\/BayesianNetwork\/IntroductionToBayesianNetworks.html#id6\"><\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u4eca\u5929\u75be\u75c5\u7684\u5b58\u5728\u5c06\u5bf9\u660e\u5929\u75be\u75c5\u662f\u5426\u4f1a\u5b58\u5728\u4ea7\u751f\u5f71\u54cd\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u8868\u793a\u201c\u4eca\u5929\u75be\u75c5\u201d\uff08\u8282\u70b9 D1 \u548c D2\uff09\u548c\u201c\u660e\u5929\u75be\u75c5\u201d\uff08\u8282\u70b9 D1* \u548c D2*\uff09\u7684\u8282\u70b9\u4e4b\u95f4\u5e94\u8be5\u6709\u4e00\u4e2a\u94fe\u63a5\u3002\u4f7f\u7528\u8fd9\u4e2a\u65b0\u7f51\u7edc\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u9884\u6d4b\u75be\u75c5\u7684\u8fdb\u5c55\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u4e0a\u9762\u7684\u4f8b\u5b50\u4e2d\u663e\u793a\u4e86\u5982\u4f55\u6784\u9020\u975e\u5e38\u7b80\u5355\u7684BN\u7684\u63cf\u8ff0\u3002\u5f53\u6211\u4eec\u6784\u5efa\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u7f51\u7edc\u65f6\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u7528\u5b83\u6765\u5728\u4e00\u4e9b\u5df2\u77e5\u72b6\u6001\u7684\u8282\u70b9\u4e2d\u8f93\u5165\u8bc1\u636e\uff0c\u7136\u540e\u68c0\u7d22\u5728\u5176\u4ed6\u8282\u70b9\u4e2d\u8ba1\u7b97\u51fa\u7684\u65b0\u6982\u7387\u3002\u5728\u82f9\u679c\u6811\u7684\u4f8b\u5b50\u4e2d\uff0c\u5047\u8bbe\u6211\u4eec\u77e5\u9053\u8fd9\u68f5\u6811\u6b63\u5728\u843d\u53f6\u3002\u7136\u540e\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u901a\u8fc7\u5728 Loses \u8282\u70b9\u4e2d\u9009\u62e9\u72b6\u6001\u201cyes\u201d\u6765\u8f93\u5165\u6b64\u8bc1\u636e\u3002\u7136\u540e\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u5c06\u6811\u751f\u75c5\u7684\u6982\u7387\u8bfb\u4f5c\u8282\u70b9Sick\u5904\u4e8e\u201csick\u201d\u72b6\u6001\u7684\u6982\u7387\uff0c\u5c06\u6811\u5e72\u71e5\u7684\u6982\u7387\u8bfb\u4f5c\u8282\u70b9Dry\u5904\u4e8e\u201cdry\u201d\u72b6\u6001\u7684\u6982\u7387\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5728\u7ed9\u5b9a\u4e00\u4e9b\u8bc1\u636e\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\u8ba1\u7b97\u5176\u4ed6\u53d8\u91cf\u7684\u6982\u7387\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u4e0a\u8ff0\u60c5\u51b5\uff0c\u79f0\u4e3a<em>\u4fe1\u5ff5\u66f4\u65b0<\/em>\u3002\u53e6\u4e00\u4e2a\u53ef\u80fd\u6709\u8da3\u7684\u4fe1\u606f\u662f\uff0c\u5728\u7ed9\u5b9a\u4e00\u4e9b\u8bc1\u636e\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u6240\u6709\u968f\u673a\u53d8\u91cf\u7684\u72b6\u6001\u6700\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u7684\u5168\u5c40\u5206\u914d\u3002\u8fd9\u88ab\u79f0\u4e3a<em>\u4fe1\u5ff5\u4fee\u6b63<\/em>\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>HUGIN\u4e3a\u60a8\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u6784\u5efa\u6b64\u7c7b\u7f51\u7edc\u7684\u5de5\u5177\u3002\u6784\u5efa BN \u540e\uff0c\u60a8\u53ef\u4ee5\u8fdb\u884c\u4fe1\u5ff5\u4fee\u6b63\u3001\u4fe1\u5ff5\u66f4\u65b0\u7b49\u7b49\u3002\u5982\u679c\u60a8\u6b63\u5728\u4e86\u89e3\u6709\u5173 HUGIN \u5f00\u53d1\u73af\u5883\u7684\u66f4\u591a\u4fe1\u606f\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u73b0\u5728\u662f\u9605\u8bfb<strong>\u5982\u4f55\u6784\u5efa BN<\/strong>\u00a0\u6559\u7a0b\u7684\u597d\u65f6\u673a\u3002\u5728\u8fd9\u91cc\uff0cApple Tree BN \u662f\u4f7f\u7528 HUGIN \u56fe\u5f62\u7528\u6237\u754c\u9762\u6784\u5efa\u7684\u3002\u60a8\u8fd8\u53ef\u4ee5\u7ee7\u7eed\u9605\u8bfb<strong>\u9762\u5411\u5bf9\u8c61\u7f51\u7edc\u7b80\u4ecb<\/strong>;\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u9762\u5411\u5bf9\u8c61\u7684\u7f51\u7edc\u5728\u6784\u5efa\u5177\u6709\u91cd\u590d\u7ed3\u6784\u7684\u7f51\u7edc\u65f6\u975e\u5e38\u6709\u7528\uff0c\u5c31\u50cf\u4e0a\u9762\u7684\u75be\u75c5\u7f51\u7edc\u4e00\u6837\u3002\u6216\u8005\u60a8\u53ef\u80fd\u5e0c\u671b\u7ee7\u7eed\u9605\u8bfb<strong>\u5f71\u54cd\u56fe \uff08ID\uff09 \u7b80\u4ecb<\/strong>;ID \u662f\u4f7f\u7528\u5b9e\u7528\u7a0b\u5e8f\u8282\u70b9\u548c\u51b3\u7b56\u8282\u70b9\u6269\u5c55\u7684 BN\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u7f51\u7edc\u7684\u5b9a\u4e49<a href=\"file:\/\/\/D:\/Program%20Files\/Hugin%20Expert\/Hugin%20Lite%209.3%20(x64)\/Htmlhelp\/pages\/Tutorials\/BayesianNetwork\/IntroductionToBayesianNetworks.html#definition-of-bayesian-networks\"><\/a><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u4ece\u5f62\u5f0f\u4e0a\u8bb2\uff0c\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u7f51\u7edc\u53ef\u4ee5\u5b9a\u4e49\u5982\u4e0b\uff1a<\/strong><strong><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u7f51\u7edc<\/em>\u662f\u4e00\u5bf9 \uff08G,P\uff09\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d G=\uff08V,E\uff09 \u662f\u6709\u9650\u8282\u70b9\uff08\u6216\u9876\u70b9\uff09\u4e0a\u7684\u6709\u5411<em>\u65e0\u73af\u56fe<\/em>\uff08DAG\uff09\uff0cV \u901a\u8fc7\u6709\u5411\u94fe\u63a5\uff08\u6216\u8fb9\uff09\u76f8\u4e92\u8fde\u63a5\uff0cE \u548c P \u662f\u4e00\u7ec4\uff08\u6761\u4ef6\uff09\u6982\u7387\u5206\u5e03\u3002\u7f51\u7edc\u5177\u6709\u4ee5\u4e0b\u5c5e\u6027\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>\u6bcf\u4e2a\u8282\u70b9\u8868\u793a\u4e00\u4e2a\u53d8\u91cf A\uff0c\u7236\u8282\u70b9\u8868\u793a\u53d8\u91cf B1\u3001B2,&#8230;, Bn\uff08\u5373 \u5bf9\u4e8e\u6bcf\u4e2a i=1,&#8230;,n\uff0cBi\uff0c\u2192 A\uff09 \u88ab\u5206\u914d\u4e00\u4e2a\u6761\u4ef6\u6982\u7387\u8868 \uff08CPT\uff09\uff0c\u8868\u793a P(A | B1, B2, \u2026, Bn)\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>\u8282\u70b9\u8868\u793a\u968f\u673a\u53d8\u91cf\uff0c\u94fe\u63a5\u8868\u793a\u53d8\u91cf\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u6982\u7387\u4f9d\u8d56\u5173\u7cfb\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u4f9d\u8d56\u5173\u7cfb\u901a\u8fc7\u4e00\u7ec4\u6761\u4ef6\u6982\u7387\u8868\uff08CPT\uff09\u8fdb\u884c\u91cf\u5316\uff1a\u6bcf\u4e2a\u53d8\u91cf\u90fd\u88ab\u5206\u914d\u4e00\u4e2a\u7ed9\u5b9a\u5176\u7236\u7ea7\u7684\u53d8\u91cf\u7684CPT\u3002\u5bf9\u4e8e\u6ca1\u6709\u7236\u7ea7\u7684\u53d8\u91cf\uff0c\u8fd9\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u65e0\u6761\u4ef6\uff08\u4e5f\u79f0\u4e3a\u8fb9\u9645\uff09\u5206\u5e03\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u6709\u6761\u4ef6\u72ec\u7acb<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u7f51\u7edc\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u91cd\u8981\u6982\u5ff5\u662f<em>\u6761\u4ef6\u72ec\u7acb<\/em>\u6027\u3002\u5982\u679c\u5f53\u53d8\u91cf C \u7684\u503c\u5df2\u77e5\u65f6\uff0c\u5173\u4e8e\u53d8\u91cf B \u503c\u7684\u77e5\u8bc6\u6ca1\u6709\u63d0\u4f9b\u6709\u5173\u53d8\u91cf A \u503c\u7684\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u4fe1\u606f\uff0c\u5219\u5728\u7ed9\u5b9a\u7b2c\u4e09\u7ec4\u53d8\u91cf&nbsp;<em>C<\/em>&nbsp;\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u79f0\u4e24\u7ec4\u53d8\u91cf&nbsp;<em>A<\/em>&nbsp;\u548c&nbsp;<em>B<\/em>&nbsp;\u662f\uff08\u6709\u6761\u4ef6\u7684\uff09\u72ec\u7acb\u7684\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>[P(A|B,C) = P(A|C)]<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>\u6761\u4ef6\u72ec\u7acb\u6027\u53ef\u4ee5\u76f4\u63a5\u4ece\u56fe\u4e2d\u8bfb\u53d6\u5982\u4e0b\uff1a\u8bbe&nbsp;<em>A<\/em>\u3001<em>B<\/em>&nbsp;\u548c&nbsp;<em>C<\/em>&nbsp;\u662f\u4e0d\u76f8\u4ea4\u7684\u53d8\u91cf\u96c6\uff0c\u5219<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>\u8bc6\u522b\u5305\u542b\u7684\u6700\u5c0f\u5b50\u56fe\u53ca\u5176\u7956\u5148;(A \u222a B \u222a C)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u5728\u5177\u6709\u516c\u5171\u5b50\u8282\u70b9\u7684\u8282\u70b9\u4e4b\u95f4\u6dfb\u52a0\u65e0\u5411\u8fb9;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u5728\u6240\u6709\u6709\u5411\u8fb9\u4e0a\u653e\u7f6e\u65b9\u5411\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>\u73b0\u5728\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u4ece A \u4e2d\u7684\u53d8\u91cf\u5230 B \u4e2d\u7684\u53d8\u91cf\u7684\u6bcf\u6761\u8def\u5f84\u90fd\u5305\u542b C \u4e2d\u7684\u53d8\u91cf\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u7ed9\u5b9a\u00a0<em>C<\/em>\u00a0\u7684\u00a0<em>A<\/em>\u00a0\u6709\u6761\u4ef6\u5730\u72ec\u7acb\u4e8e\u00a0<em>B<\/em>\u00a0<strong>\uff08Lauritzen et al. 1990\uff09\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u4e3a\u4e86\u8bf4\u660e\u8fd9\u4e2a\u6982\u5ff5\uff0c\u8ba9\u6211\u4eec\u8003\u8651\u4ee5\u4e0b\u865a\u6784\u7684\u533b\u5b66\u77e5\u8bc6<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u201c\u547c\u5438\u6025\u4fc3\uff08\u547c\u5438\u56f0\u96be\uff09[d]\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u7531\u4e8e\u7ed3\u6838\u75c5[t]\u3001\u80ba\u764c[l]\u6216\u652f\u6c14\u7ba1\u708e[b]\uff0c\u6216\u5b83\u4eec\u90fd\u4e0d\u662f\uff0c\u6216\u4e0d\u6b62\u4e00\u79cd\u3002\u6700\u8fd1\u5bf9\u4e9a\u6d32\u7684\u8bbf\u95ee[a]\u4f1a\u589e\u52a0\u60a3\u80ba\u7ed3\u6838\u7684\u98ce\u9669\uff0c\u800c\u5438\u70df[s]\u662f\u80ba\u764c\u548c\u652f\u6c14\u7ba1\u708e\u7684\u5371\u9669\u56e0\u7d20\u3002\u5355\u6b21\u80f8\u90e8X\u5149\u68c0\u67e5\u7684\u7ed3\u679c[x]\u4e0d\u80fd\u533a\u5206\u80ba\u764c\u548c\u80ba\u7ed3\u6838\uff0c\u547c\u5438\u56f0\u96be\u7684\u5b58\u5728\u4e0e\u5426\u4e5f\u4e0d\u80fd\u533a\u5206\u201c\uff08Lauritzen&amp;Spiegelhalter 1988\uff09\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u6700\u540e\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e8b\u5b9e\u5728\u56fe\u4e2d\u7531\u4e2d\u95f4\u53d8\u91cf&nbsp;<em>e<\/em>&nbsp;\u8868\u793a\u3002\u8fd9\u4e2a\u53d8\u91cf\u662f\u5b83\u7684\u4e24\u4e2a\u7236\u7ea7\uff08<em>t<\/em>&nbsp;\u548c&nbsp;<em>l<\/em>\uff09\u7684\u903b\u8f91\u6216;\u5b83\u603b\u7ed3\u4e86\u4e00\u79cd\u6216\u4e24\u79cd\u75be\u75c5\u7684\u5b58\u5728\u6216\u4e24\u79cd\u75be\u75c5\u7684\u4e0d\u5b58\u5728\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u56fe 4 \u663e\u793a\u4e86\u77e5\u8bc6\u6a21\u578b\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"811\" height=\"466\" src=\"https:\/\/cabit.top\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/image-6.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-1273\" srcset=\"https:\/\/cabit.top\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/image-6.png 811w, https:\/\/cabit.top\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/image-6-300x172.png 300w, https:\/\/cabit.top\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/image-6-768x441.png 768w, https:\/\/cabit.top\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/image-6-670x385.png 670w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 811px) 100vw, 811px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>\u56fe4\uff1a\u8868\u793a\u6709\u5173\u80ba\u90e8\u75be\u75c5\u7684\u533b\u5b66\u77e5\u8bc6\u7684\u7ed3\u6784\u65b9\u9762\u7684\u56fe\u8868\u3002<strong><a href=\"file:\/\/\/D:\/Program%20Files\/Hugin%20Expert\/Hugin%20Lite%209.3%20(x64)\/Htmlhelp\/pages\/Tutorials\/BayesianNetwork\/IntroductionToBayesianNetworks.html#id7\"><\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5982\u679c\u6211\u4eec\u4e86\u89e3\u5230\u60a3\u8005\u662f\u5438\u70df\u8005\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5c06\u8c03\u6574\u6211\u4eec\u5bf9\u80ba\u764c\u548c\u652f\u6c14\u7ba1\u708e\u7684\u4fe1\u5ff5\uff08\u98ce\u9669\u589e\u52a0\uff09\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5bf9\u7ed3\u6838\u75c5\u7684\u4fe1\u5ff5\u662f\u4e0d\u53d8\u7684\uff08\u5373\uff0c\u5728\u7ed9\u5b9a\u7a7a\u53d8\u91cf\u96c6\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c<em>t<\/em>&nbsp;\u6709\u6761\u4ef6\u5730\u72ec\u7acb\u4e8e&nbsp;<em>s<\/em>\uff09\u3002\u73b0\u5728\uff0c\u5047\u8bbe\u6211\u4eec\u5f97\u5230\u75c5\u4eba\u7684\u9633\u6027 X \u5c04\u7ebf\u7ed3\u679c\u3002\u8fd9\u5c06\u5f71\u54cd\u6211\u4eec\u5bf9\u80ba\u7ed3\u6838\u548c\u80ba\u764c\u7684\u4fe1\u5ff5\uff0c\u4f46\u4e0d\u4f1a\u5f71\u54cd\u6211\u4eec\u5bf9\u652f\u6c14\u7ba1\u708e\u7684\u4fe1\u5ff5\uff08\u5373<em>\uff0cb<\/em>&nbsp;\u6709\u6761\u4ef6\u5730\u72ec\u7acb\u4e8e&nbsp;<em>x<\/em>&nbsp;\u7ed9\u5b9a<em>\u7684 s<\/em>\uff09\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u6211\u4eec\u4e5f\u77e5\u9053\u60a3\u8005\u60a3\u6709\u547c\u5438\u6025\u4fc3\uff0cX \u5c04\u7ebf\u7ed3\u679c\u4e5f\u4f1a\u5f71\u54cd\u6211\u4eec\u5bf9\u652f\u6c14\u7ba1\u708e\u7684\u4fe1\u5ff5\uff08\u5373&nbsp;<em>b<\/em>&nbsp;\u6ca1\u6709\u6761\u4ef6\u5730\u72ec\u7acb\u4e8e<em>\u7ed9\u5b9a\u7684 s<\/em>&nbsp;\u548c&nbsp;<em>d<\/em>\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u4f7f\u7528\u4e0a\u8ff0\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u4ece\u56fe 1 \u7684\u56fe\u4e2d\u8bfb\u53d6\u8fd9\u4e9b\uff08\u4e0d\uff09\u4f9d\u8d56\u6027\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u53e6\u4e00\u79cd\u786e\u5b9a\u6761\u4ef6\u72ec\u7acb\u6027\u7684\u7b49\u6548\u65b9\u6cd5\u662f<strong>d-\u5206\u79bb<\/strong>\uff0c\u8fd9\u6e90\u4e8e<strong>Pearl\uff081988\uff09<\/strong>\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u63a8\u7406<a href=\"file:\/\/\/D:\/Program%20Files\/Hugin%20Expert\/Hugin%20Lite%209.3%20(x64)\/Htmlhelp\/pages\/Tutorials\/BayesianNetwork\/IntroductionToBayesianNetworks.html#inference\"><\/a><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u7f51\u7edc\u4e2d\u7684\u63a8\u7406\u610f\u5473\u7740\u5728\u7ed9\u5b9a\u5176\u4ed6\u53d8\u91cf\u7684\u4fe1\u606f\uff08\u8bc1\u636e\uff09\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\u8ba1\u7b97\u67d0\u4e9b\u53d8\u91cf\u7684\u6761\u4ef6\u6982\u7387\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5f53\u6240\u6709\u53ef\u7528\u8bc1\u636e\u90fd\u6307\u5411\u4f5c\u4e3a\u611f\u5174\u8da3\u53d8\u91cf\u7684\u7956\u5148\u7684\u53d8\u91cf\u65f6\uff0c\u8fd9\u5f88\u5bb9\u6613\u3002\u4f46\u662f\uff0c\u5f53\u6709\u5173\u4e8e\u611f\u5174\u8da3\u53d8\u91cf\u7684\u540e\u4ee3\u7684\u8bc1\u636e\u65f6\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5fc5\u987b\u6267\u884c\u4e0e\u8fb9\u7f18\u65b9\u5411\u76f8\u53cd\u7684\u63a8\u7406\u3002\u4e3a\u6b64\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u91c7\u7528<em>\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u5b9a\u7406<\/em>\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"292\" height=\"107\" src=\"https:\/\/cabit.top\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/image-7.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-1274\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>HUGIN\u63a8\u7406\u672c\u8d28\u4e0a\u662f\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u5b9a\u7406\u7684\u5de7\u5999\u5e94\u7528;\u8be6\u60c5\u53ef\u53c2\u89c1<strong>Jensen\u7b49\u4eba\uff081990\uff081\uff09\uff09<\/strong>\u7684\u8bba\u6587\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u5177\u6709\u6761\u4ef6\u9ad8\u65af\u53d8\u91cf\u7684\u7f51\u7edc<a href=\"file:\/\/\/D:\/Program%20Files\/Hugin%20Expert\/Hugin%20Lite%209.3%20(x64)\/Htmlhelp\/pages\/Tutorials\/BayesianNetwork\/IntroductionToBayesianNetworks.html#networks-with-conditional-gaussian-variables\"><\/a><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>HUGIN\u51b3\u7b56\u5f15\u64ce\u80fd\u591f\u5904\u7406\u5177\u6709\u79bb\u6563\u548c\u8fde\u7eed\u968f\u673a\u53d8\u91cf\u7684\u7f51\u7edc\u3002\u8fde\u7eed\u968f\u673a\u53d8\u91cf\u5fc5\u987b\u5177\u6709\u4ee5\u7236\u7ea7\u503c\u4e3a\u6761\u4ef6<em>\u7684\u9ad8\u65af<\/em>\u5206\u5e03\uff08\u4e5f\u79f0\u4e3a\u6b63\u6001\u5206\u5e03\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5177\u6709\u79bb\u6563\u7236\u7ea7 I \u548c\u8fde\u7eed\u7236\u7ea7 Z \u7684\u8fde\u7eed\u53d8\u91cf Y \u7684\u5206\u5e03\u662f\u4ee5\u7236\u9879\u7684\u503c\u4e3a\u6761\u4ef6\u7684\uff08\u4e00\u7ef4\uff09\u9ad8\u65af\u5206\u5e03\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"606\" height=\"47\" src=\"https:\/\/cabit.top\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/image-8.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-1275\" srcset=\"https:\/\/cabit.top\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/image-8.png 606w, https:\/\/cabit.top\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/image-8-300x23.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 606px) 100vw, 606px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>\u8bf7\u6ce8\u610f\uff0c\u5747\u503c\u7ebf\u6027\u4f9d\u8d56\u4e8e\u8fde\u7eed\u7236\u53d8\u91cf\uff0c\u800c\u65b9\u5dee\u4e0d\u4f9d\u8d56\u4e8e\u8fde\u7eed\u7236\u53d8\u91cf\u3002\u4f46\u662f\uff0c\u7ebf\u6027\u51fd\u6570\u548c\u65b9\u5dee\u90fd\u5141\u8bb8\u4f9d\u8d56\u4e8e\u79bb\u6563\u7236\u53d8\u91cf\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u9650\u5236\u786e\u4fdd\u4e86\u7cbe\u786e\u63a8\u7406\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u8bf7\u6ce8\u610f\uff0c\u79bb\u6563\u53d8\u91cf\u4e0d\u80fd\u5177\u6709\u8fde\u7eed\u7684\u7236\u53d8\u91cf\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u56fe 5 \u663e\u793a\u4e86\u5783\u573e\u711a\u70e7\u7089\u7684\u7f51\u7edc\u6a21\u578b\uff08<strong>Lauritzen 1992<\/strong>\uff09\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u201c<\/strong><strong>\u5783\u573e\u711a\u70e7\u7089\u7684\u6392\u653e\uff08\u7c89\u5c18\u548c\u91cd\u91d1\u5c5e\uff09\u56e0\u8fdb\u5165\u5e9f\u7269\u7684\u6210\u5206\u5dee\u5f02\u800c\u4e0d\u540c [<\/strong><em>W<\/em><strong>]<\/strong><strong>\u3002\u53e6\u4e00\u4e2a\u91cd\u8981\u56e0\u7d20\u662f\u5e9f\u7269\u71c3\u70e7\u65b9\u6848[<\/strong><em>B<\/em><strong>]<\/strong><strong>\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u901a\u8fc7\u6d4b\u91cf\u6392\u653e\u7269\u4e2d\u7684CO2\u6d53\u5ea6\u6765\u76d1\u6d4b[<\/strong><em>C<\/em><strong>]<\/strong><strong>\u3002\u8fc7\u6ee4\u6548\u7387 [<\/strong><em>E<\/em><strong>] <\/strong><strong>\u53d6\u51b3\u4e8e\u7535\u8fc7\u6ee4\u5668\u7684\u6280\u672f\u72b6\u6001 [<\/strong><em>F<\/em><strong>] <\/strong><strong>\u4ee5\u53ca\u5e9f\u7269\u7684\u6570\u91cf\u548c\u6210\u5206 [<\/strong><em>W<\/em><strong>]<\/strong><strong>\u3002\u91cd\u91d1\u5c5e [<\/strong><em>Mo<\/em><strong>] <\/strong><strong>\u7684\u6392\u653e\u53d6\u51b3\u4e8e\u8fdb\u5165\u5e9f\u7269\u4e2d\u91d1\u5c5e [<\/strong><em>Mi<\/em><strong>] <\/strong><strong>\u7684\u6d53\u5ea6\u548c\u7070\u5c18\u9897\u7c92 [<\/strong><em>D<\/em><strong>] <\/strong><strong>\u7684\u6392\u653e\u3002\u901a\u8fc7\u6d4b\u91cf\u5149\u7684\u7a7f\u900f\u6027[<\/strong><em>L<\/em><strong>]<\/strong><strong>\u6765\u76d1\u6d4b\u7c89\u5c18\u7684\u53d1\u5c04[<\/strong><em>D<\/em><strong>]<\/strong><strong>\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"458\" src=\"https:\/\/cabit.top\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/image-9-1024x458.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-1276\" srcset=\"https:\/\/cabit.top\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/image-9-1024x458.png 1024w, https:\/\/cabit.top\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/image-9-300x134.png 300w, https:\/\/cabit.top\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/image-9-768x343.png 768w, https:\/\/cabit.top\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/image-9-670x299.png 670w, https:\/\/cabit.top\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/image-9.png 1063w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>\u56fe 5\uff1a\u5783\u573e\u711a\u70e7\u7089\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u7ed3\u6784\u65b9\u9762\uff1a<em>B<\/em>\u3001<em>F<\/em>&nbsp;\u548c&nbsp;<em>W<\/em>&nbsp;\u662f\u79bb\u6563\u53d8\u91cf\uff0c\u800c\u5176\u4f59\u53d8\u91cf\u662f\u8fde\u7eed\u53d8\u91cf\u3002<strong><a href=\"file:\/\/\/D:\/Program%20Files\/Hugin%20Expert\/Hugin%20Lite%209.3%20(x64)\/Htmlhelp\/pages\/Tutorials\/BayesianNetwork\/IntroductionToBayesianNetworks.html#id8\"><\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5728\u5305\u542b\u6761\u4ef6\u9ad8\u65af\u53d8\u91cf\u7684\u7f51\u7edc\u6a21\u578b\u4e2d\u63a8\u7406\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u4e00\u5982\u65e2\u5f80\u5730\u662f\u7ed9\u5b9a\u8bc1\u636e\u7684\u5355\u4e2a\u53d8\u91cf\u7684\u4fe1\u5ff5\uff08\u5373\u8fb9\u9645\u5206\u5e03\uff09\u3002\u5bf9\u4e8e\u79bb\u6563\u53d8\u91cf\uff0c\u8fd9\u76f8\u5f53\u4e8e\u53d8\u91cf\u72b6\u6001\u7684\u6982\u7387\u5206\u5e03\u3002\u5bf9\u4e8e\u6761\u4ef6\u9ad8\u65af\u53d8\u91cf\uff0c\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u4e24\u4e2a\u5ea6\u91cf\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ol 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