{"id":106,"date":"2021-11-27T22:49:07","date_gmt":"2021-11-27T14:49:07","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/cabit.top\/?p=106"},"modified":"2021-11-27T22:49:07","modified_gmt":"2021-11-27T14:49:07","slug":"%e8%92%99%e7%89%b9%e5%8d%a1%e7%bd%97%e6%a8%a1%e6%8b%9f%ef%bc%88monte-carlo-simulation%ef%bc%89","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cabit.top\/?p=106","title":{"rendered":"\u8499\u7279\u5361\u7f57\u6a21\u62df\uff08Monte Carlo Simulation\uff09"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u98ce\u9669\u5206\u6790<\/strong> <\/p>\n

\u98ce\u9669\u5206\u6790\u662f\u6211\u4eec\u6240\u505a\u7684\u6bcf\u4e2a\u51b3\u7b56\u7684\u4e00\u90e8\u5206\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u7ecf\u5e38\u9762\u4e34\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u3001\u4e0d\u660e\u786e\u6027\u548c\u53ef\u53d8\u6027\u3002\u800c\u4e14\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u5bf9\u4fe1\u606f\u8fdb\u884c\u524d\u6240\u672a\u6709\u7684\u8bbf\u95ee\uff0c\u4f46\u6211\u4eec\u4ecd\u65e0\u6cd5\u51c6\u786e\u9884\u6d4b\u672a\u6765\u3002\u8499\u7279\u5361\u7f57\u6a21\u62df\u5141\u8bb8\u60a8\u67e5\u770b\u60a8\u505a\u51fa\u7684\u51b3\u7b56\u7684\u6240\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u7ed3\u679c\u5e76\u8bc4\u4f30\u98ce\u9669\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u5728\u5b58\u5728\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u56e0\u7d20\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\u505a\u51fa\u66f4\u597d\u7684\u51b3\u7b56\u3002 <\/p>\n

\u4ec0\u4e48\u662f\u8499\u7279\u5361\u7f57\u6a21\u62df\uff1f<\/strong> <\/p>\n

\u8499\u7279\u5361\u7f57\u6a21\u62df\u662f\u4e00\u79cd\u8ba1\u7b97\u673a\u5316\u7684\u6570\u5b66\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u5141\u8bb8\u4eba\u4eec\u8bc4\u4f30\u5b9a\u91cf\u5206\u6790\u548c\u51b3\u7b56\u5236\u5b9a\u8fc7\u7a0b\u4e2d\u7684\u98ce\u9669\u3002\u4e13\u4e1a\u4eba\u5458\u5c06\u6b64\u65b9\u6cd5\u5e7f\u6cdb\u5e94\u7528\u4e8e\u4e0d\u540c\u9886\u57df\uff0c\u5982\u91d1\u878d\u3001\u9879\u76ee\u7ba1\u7406\u3001\u80fd\u6e90\u3001\u5236\u9020\u3001\u5de5\u7a0b\u3001\u7814\u53d1\u3001\u4fdd\u9669\u3001\u77f3\u6cb9\u548c\u5929\u7136\u6c14\u3001\u8fd0\u8f93\u548c\u73af\u5883\u3002 <\/p>\n

\u8499\u7279\u5361\u7f57\u6a21\u62df\u5411\u51b3\u7b56\u8005\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u91c7\u53d6\u4efb\u4f55\u63aa\u65bd\u53ef\u80fd\u4ea7\u751f\u7684\u4e00\u7cfb\u5217\u53ef\u80fd\u7ed3\u679c\u548c\u6982\u7387\u3002\u5b83\u8bf4\u660e\u4e86\u6700\u5927\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\uff0c\u5373\u5168\u529b\u4ee5\u8d74\u548c\u6700\u4fdd\u5b88\u51b3\u7b56\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u6298\u8877\u51b3\u7b56\u7684\u6240\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u540e\u679c\u3002 <\/p>\n

\u6b64\u65b9\u6cd5\u9996\u5148\u88ab\u79d1\u5b66\u5bb6\u7528\u4e8e\u7814\u7a76\u539f\u5b50\u5f39\uff1b\u5b83\u4ee5\u56e0\u8d4c\u573a\u800c\u95fb\u540d\u9050\u8fe9\u7684\u6469\u7eb3\u54e5\u65c5\u6e38\u57ce\u5e02\u8499\u7279\u5361\u7f57\u547d\u540d\u3002\u81ea\u4ece\u5728\u4e8c\u6218\u4e2d\u63a8\u51fa\u4ee5\u6765\uff0c\u8499\u7279\u5361\u7f57\u6a21\u62df\u4e00\u76f4\u7528\u4e8e\u4e3a\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u7269\u7406\u548c\u6982\u5ff5\u7cfb\u7edf\u5efa\u7acb\u6a21\u578b\u3002 <\/p>\n

\u8499\u7279\u5361\u7f57\u6a21\u62df\u7684\u5de5\u4f5c\u539f\u7406<\/strong> <\/p>\n

\u8499\u7279\u5361\u7f57\u6a21\u62df\u901a\u8fc7\u66ff\u6362\u503c\u8303\u56f4\uff08\u6982\u7387\u5206\u5e03\uff09\u4e3a\u5177\u6709\u5185\u5728\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u7684\u4efb\u4f55\u56e0\u7d20\u6784\u5efa\u53ef\u80fd\u7ed3\u679c\u7684\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u6267\u884c\u98ce\u9669\u5206\u6790\u3002\u7136\u540e\u91cd\u590d\u8ba1\u7b97\u7ed3\u679c\uff0c\u6bcf\u6b21\u4f7f\u7528\u5206\u5e03\u51fd\u6570\u4e2d\u7684\u4e00\u7ec4\u4e0d\u540c\u968f\u673a\u503c\u3002\u6839\u636e\u4e3a\u968f\u673a\u503c\u6307\u5b9a\u7684\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u56e0\u7d20\u7684\u6570\u91cf\u548c\u8303\u56f4\uff0c\u8499\u7279\u5361\u7f57\u6a21\u62df\u5728\u5b8c\u6210\u4e4b\u524d\u53ef\u4ee5\u8fdb\u884c\u6210\u5343\u4e0a\u4e07\u6b21\u91cd\u65b0\u8ba1\u7b97\u3002\u8499\u7279\u5361\u7f57\u6a21\u62df\u751f\u6210\u53ef\u80fd\u7ed3\u679c\u503c\u7684\u5206\u5e03\u3002 <\/p>\n

\u901a\u8fc7\u4f7f\u7528\u6982\u7387\u5206\u5e03\uff0c\u53d8\u91cf\u53ef\u4ee5\u5177\u6709\u6240\u751f\u6210\u7684\u4e0d\u540c\u7ed3\u679c\u7684\u4e0d\u540c\u6982\u7387\u3002\u6982\u7387\u5206\u5e03\u662f\u63cf\u8ff0\u98ce\u9669\u5206\u6790\u7684\u53d8\u91cf\u4e2d\u7684\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u56e0\u7d20\u7684\u4e00\u79cd\u66f4\u5207\u5408\u5b9e\u9645\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u3002 <\/p>\n

\u5e38\u7528\u6982\u7387\u5206\u5e03\u5305\u62ec\uff1a <\/p>\n

\"Distributions_monteCarloSim\"<\/a> <\/p>\n

\u6b63\u6001\u5206\u5e03<\/strong> \u2014 \u6216\u201c\u949f\u5f62\u66f2\u7ebf\u201d\u3002\u7528\u6237\u53ea\u9700\u5b9a\u4e49\u5e73\u5747\u503c\u6216\u9884\u671f\u503c\u548c\u6807\u51c6\u5dee\u6765\u63cf\u8ff0\u5e73\u5747\u503c\u7684\u53d8\u5316\u3002\u63a5\u8fd1\u5e73\u5747\u503c\u7684\u4e2d\u95f4\u503c\u6700\u53ef\u80fd\u53d1\u751f\u3002\u6b64\u5206\u5e03\u662f\u5bf9\u79f0\u7684\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u63cf\u8ff0\u8bb8\u591a\u81ea\u7136\u73b0\u8c61\uff0c\u5982\u4eba\u7684\u8eab\u9ad8\u3002\u7531\u6b63\u6001\u5206\u5e03\u63cf\u8ff0\u7684\u53d8\u91cf\u793a\u4f8b\u5305\u62ec\u901a\u8d27\u81a8\u80c0\u7387\u548c\u80fd\u6e90\u4ef7\u683c\u3002 <\/p>\n

\u5bf9\u6570\u6b63\u6001\u5206\u5e03<\/strong> \u2014 \u503c\u4e3a\u6b63\u504f\u6001\u5206\u5e03\uff0c\u800c\u975e\u6b63\u6001\u5206\u5e03\u7684\u5bf9\u79f0\u5206\u5e03\u3002\u5176\u7528\u4e8e\u8868\u793a\u4e0d\u4f4e\u4e8e\u96f6\u4f46\u5177\u6709\u65e0\u9650\u6b63\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u7684\u503c\u3002\u5bf9\u6570\u6b63\u6001\u5206\u5e03\u63cf\u8ff0\u7684\u53d8\u91cf\u793a\u4f8b\u5305\u62ec\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u4ef7\u503c\u3001\u80a1\u7968\u4ef7\u683c\u548c\u77f3\u6cb9\u50a8\u91cf\u3002 <\/p>\n

\u5747\u5300\u5206\u5e03<\/strong> \u2014 \u6240\u6709\u503c\u5747\u5177\u6709\u76f8\u540c\u7684\u53d1\u751f\u673a\u4f1a\uff0c\u800c\u7528\u6237\u53ea\u9700\u5b9a\u4e49\u6700\u5c0f\u503c\u548c\u6700\u5927\u503c\u3002\u53ef\u4ee5\u8fdb\u884c\u5747\u5300\u5206\u5e03\u7684\u53d8\u91cf\u793a\u4f8b\u5305\u62ec\u5236\u9020\u6210\u672c\u6216\u65b0\u4ea7\u54c1\u7684\u672a\u6765\u9500\u552e\u6536\u5165\u3002 <\/p>\n

\u4e09\u89d2\u5206\u5e03<\/strong> \u2014 \u7528\u6237\u5b9a\u4e49\u6700\u5c0f\u503c\u3001\u6700\u53ef\u80fd\u503c\u548c\u6700\u5927\u503c\u3002\u6700\u53ef\u80fd\u503c\u5468\u56f4\u7684\u503c\u6700\u53ef\u80fd\u53d1\u751f\u3002\u53ef\u4ee5\u901a\u8fc7\u4e09\u89d2\u5206\u5e03\u8fdb\u884c\u63cf\u8ff0\u7684\u53d8\u91cf\u5305\u62ec\u5355\u4f4d\u65f6\u95f4\u5185\u7684\u8fc7\u53bb\u9500\u552e\u5386\u53f2\u8bb0\u5f55\u548c\u5e93\u5b58\u6c34\u5e73\u3002 <\/p>\n

PERT \u5206\u5e03 <\/strong>\u2014 \u7528\u6237\u5b9a\u4e49\u6700\u5c0f\u503c\u3001\u6700\u53ef\u80fd\u503c\u548c\u6700\u5927\u503c\uff0c\u4e0e\u4e09\u89d2\u5206\u5e03\u4e00\u6837\u3002\u6700\u53ef\u80fd\u503c\u5468\u56f4\u7684\u503c\u6700\u53ef\u80fd\u53d1\u751f\u3002\u4f46\u662f\uff0c\u4e0e\u4e09\u89d2\u5206\u5e03\u76f8\u6bd4\uff0c\u6700\u53ef\u80fd\u503c\u548c\u6781\u503c\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u503c\u66f4\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u53d1\u751f\uff1b\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u8bf4\uff0c\u4e0d\u518d\u5f3a\u8c03\u6781\u503c\u3002\u4f7f\u7528 PERT \u5206\u5e03\u7684\u793a\u4f8b\u662f\u5728\u9879\u76ee\u7ba1\u7406\u6a21\u578b\u4e2d\u63cf\u8ff0\u4efb\u52a1\u7684\u6301\u7eed\u65f6\u95f4\u3002 <\/p>\n

\u79bb\u6563\u5206\u5e03<\/strong> \u2014 \u7528\u6237\u5b9a\u4e49\u53ef\u80fd\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u7279\u5b9a\u503c\u548c\u6bcf\u4e2a\u503c\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u3002\u793a\u4f8b\u53ef\u4ee5\u662f\u8bc9\u8bbc\u7ed3\u679c\uff1a20% \u7684\u6982\u7387\u4e3a\u6b63\u9762\u88c1\u51b3\u300130% \u7684\u6982\u7387\u4e3a\u8d1f\u9762\u88c1\u51b3\u300140% \u7684\u6982\u7387\u4e3a\u548c\u89e3\uff0c\u800c 10% \u7684\u6982\u7387\u4e3a\u65e0\u6548\u5ba1\u5224\u3002 <\/p>\n

\u5728\u8499\u7279\u5361\u7f57\u6a21\u62df\u8fc7\u7a0b\u4e2d\uff0c\u4ece\u8f93\u5165\u9879\u6982\u7387\u5206\u5e03\u4e2d\u5bf9\u503c\u8fdb\u884c\u968f\u673a\u62bd\u6837\u3002\u6bcf\u7ec4\u6837\u672c\u79f0\u4e3a\u4e00\u6b21\u8fed\u4ee3\uff0c\u5e76\u8bb0\u5f55\u6837\u672c\u6240\u751f\u6210\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u3002\u8499\u7279\u5361\u7f57\u6a21\u62df\u8fdb\u884c\u6570\u767e\u6b21\u6216\u6570\u5343\u6b21\u6b64\u7c7b\u64cd\u4f5c\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u7ed3\u679c\u662f\u53ef\u80fd\u7ed3\u679c\u7684\u6982\u7387\u5206\u5e03\u3002\u901a\u8fc7\u8fd9\u79cd\u65b9\u5f0f\uff0c\u8499\u7279\u5361\u7f57\u6a21\u62df\u4e3a\u53ef\u80fd\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u63d0\u4f9b\u66f4\u4e3a\u5168\u9762\u7684\u610f\u89c1\u3002\u5b83\u4e0d\u4ec5\u544a\u77e5\u60a8\u53ef\u80fd\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u544a\u77e5\u7ed3\u679c\u7684\u53d1\u751f\u6982\u7387\u3002 <\/p>\n

\u4e0e\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u5206\u6790\u6216\u201c\u5355\u70b9\u4f30\u8ba1\u201d\u5206\u6790\u76f8\u6bd4\uff0c\u8499\u7279\u5361\u7f57\u6a21\u62df\u63d0\u4f9b\u8bb8\u591a\u4f18\u52bf\uff1a <\/p>\n

\u6982\u7387\u7ed3\u679c<\/strong>\u3002\u7ed3\u679c\u4e0d\u4ec5\u663e\u793a\u53ef\u80fd\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u663e\u793a\u6bcf\u4e2a\u7ed3\u679c\u7684\u53d1\u751f\u6982\u7387\u3002 <\/p>\n

\u56fe\u5f62\u7ed3\u679c<\/strong>\u3002 \u4f7f\u7528\u7531\u8499\u7279\u5361\u7f57\u6a21\u62df\u751f\u6210\u7684\u6570\u636e\uff0c\u7528\u6237\u53ef\u4ee5\u65b9\u4fbf\u521b\u5efa\u4e0d\u540c\u7ed3\u679c\u53ca\u5176\u53d1\u751f\u6982\u7387\u7684\u56fe\u5f62\u3002\u5bf9\u4e8e\u5411\u5176\u4ed6\u5229\u76ca\u76f8\u5173\u65b9\u4f20\u8fbe\u7ed3\u679c\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e00\u70b9\u5f88\u91cd\u8981\u3002 <\/p>\n

\u7075\u654f\u5ea6\u5206\u6790<\/strong>\u3002 \u4ec5\u5728\u5c11\u6570\u6848\u4f8b\u4e2d\uff0c\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u5206\u6790\u96be\u4e8e\u67e5\u770b\u54ea\u4e9b\u53d8\u91cf\u5bf9\u7ed3\u679c\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u6700\u5927\u3002\u5728\u8499\u7279\u5361\u7f57\u6a21\u62df\u4e2d\uff0c\u7528\u6237\u53ef\u4ee5\u65b9\u4fbf\u67e5\u770b\u54ea\u4e9b\u8f93\u5165\u9879\u5bf9\u6700\u7ec8\u7ed3\u679c\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u6700\u5927\u3002 <\/p>\n

\u65b9\u6848\u5206\u6790<\/strong>\uff1a \u5728\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u6a21\u578b\u4e2d\uff0c\u5f88\u96be\u4e3a\u4e0d\u540c\u8f93\u5165\u9879\u7684\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u503c\u7ec4\u5408\u5efa\u7acb\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u4ee5\u67e5\u770b\u771f\u6b63\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u65b9\u6848\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u3002\u4f7f\u7528\u8499\u7279\u5361\u7f57\u6a21\u62df\uff0c\u5206\u6790\u4eba\u5458\u53ef\u4ee5\u5728\u67d0\u4e9b\u7ed3\u679c\u53d1\u751f\u65f6\uff0c\u51c6\u786e\u67e5\u770b\u54ea\u4e9b\u8f93\u5165\u9879\u5c06\u54ea\u4e9b\u503c\u7ec4\u5408\u5728\u4e00\u8d77\u3002\u8981\u5b8c\u6210\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u5206\u6790\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e00\u70b9\u975e\u5e38\u91cd\u8981\u3002 <\/p>\n

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